With the development of NIL, another one-seed-heavy Final Four can be expected

Indianapolis, IN- When predicting the outcome of a major sports league, knowledge is power in most cases. However, when it comes to March Madness, ignorance can be bliss. When filling out your bracket, top teams such as Duke headline the champions circle. With the true exception of 2023’s tournament, which saw #4 UConn win it all, predicting the overall national champion is not too difficult. The difficulty comes from the major upsets, especially during the opening weekend.

ROUND 1: Only Three Double-Digit Seeds Advance?

First of all, I understand this claim would mean two fewer double-digit seeds would advance compared to last year’s five teams. Of those five teams, #10 New Mexico, #12 Colorado State, #11 Drake, #10 Arkansas, and #12 McNeese, only the latter two are in this year’s dance. Arkansas enters March Madness as a four-seed while McNeese stays as a 12-seed.

I have two reasons as to why McNeese won’t advance to the Round of 32. My first reason stems from coaching. Last season, Will Wade was in charge. Now, he finds himself in the First Four coaching NC State. Secondly, Vanderbilt is coming off an SEC Championship game loss to Arkansas. En route to the finals, the Commodores took down the defending National Champions and one-seeded Florida 91-74.

The three double-digit seeds that I see advancing are #10 Santa Clara, #11 VCU, and #12 Akron.

In this exercise, #10 Santa Clara would defeat #7 Kentucky. My take stems from a few historical patterns on Kentucky’s end. Since Covid (2020), the Wildcats have made it to the Sweet 16 only one time. That came last year as a three-seed, beating #14 Troy and #6 Illinois. Before that, first round exit as the three-seed, second round exit as the sixth-seed, first round exit as the two-seed, and a 9-16 season in 2021. Additionally, since their three-game losing streak in mid-February, Kentucky has endured a pattern of two wins, then two losses. As things stand, they lost their last game to Florida. If the pattern were to continue, the Wildcats’ streak of disappointing tournaments would continue. The cherry on top for me is the fact that Santa Clara can compete. Leading #3 Gonzaga at halftime in their last week gives me just enough confidence in the Broncos as a team, independent of Kentucky’s misfortune.

The next two teams are similar in the sense that they each won their conference tournament. However, what sets #11 VCU (A-10) and #12 Akron (MAC) apart is the buzz of social media. Akron knows that they had to win to be in. In fact, this is the first time the MAC has had more than one team in the tournament since 1999. VCU, on the other hand, had to hear from the committee that they would’ve missed the tournament if they lost to Dayton. For a bubble team to hear that, a fire must be lit underneath them. Beyond that, 2nd team All-American Caleb Wilson is out for #6 North Carolina for the remainder of the season. Combine no star player with a fiery squad, and the perfect storm has been created. As for Akron, the lack of an opposing star player benefits them as well. While Christian Anderson’s 18.9 ppg will help, not having JT Toppin will hurt the Red Raiders massively. Given how scrappy the Zips’ win over Toledo in the MAC championship was, the decision wasn’t too difficult.

ROUND 2: UCLA, BYU, and ‘The U’

Beyond the presence of the letter ‘U,’ the connection between these three teams is the fact that they get massive upsets in the Round of 32. In this bracket, #7 UCLA would defeat #2 UConn, #6 BYU would defeat #3 Gonzaga, and #7 Miami University would defeat #2 Purdue.

UCLA has been heating up as of late. With wins over Illinois and Michigan State, both three-seeds in this tournament, and a competitive 73-66 loss to Purdue, the ingredients are on the table for a big upset. Beyond the Bruins, Dan Hurley’s UConn suffered a big 20-point loss to St John’s in the Big East Championship game. While Hurley has the experience in this tournament, the emotions will get the better of him, in my opinion. Alex Karaban will still be a UConn legend, but his story ends in the Round of 32.

Ask anyone that I’ve talked to about this tournament, I’ve said from the start that #6 BYU will either lose in Round 1 or the Elite Eight, with no in between. AJ Dybantsa is a bona fide top-three prospect in the 2026 NBA Draft. Averaging 25.3 ppg, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him average 30 ppg+ in the tournament. Robert Wright’s 18.2 ppg helps the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Only one issue here, Gonzaga averages 85.1 ppg. What I have separating these teams is, as expected, Dybantsa. Being a superstar takes winning games that don’t make sense. On paper, Gonzaga is the better team. However, Dybantsa is such a special player that he throws ‘chalk talk’ out the window.

Since February 1st, only two teams have defeated Miami. Those teams are Louisville and Virginia. Before their impressive Big 10 Tournament Championship win, the Boilermakers lost three of their final four games. That rough stretch, combined with the fact that Purdue has never played the seven seed as the two seed in March Madness, is concerning. Beating #10 Butler 76-73 in 2018, #10 Detroit 80-65 in 1998, and losing to #10 Texas 73-72 in 1990 doesn’t scream winning formula. Even if Purdue gets the job done, they went on to lose in the Sweet 16 in 1998 and 2018 as the #2 seed. With that in mind, a team that made the Final Four as a five-seed in 2023 can beat a #2 seed here.

SWEET 16: Four #1’s, Three #3’s, and One #6

While I have UCLA and Miami exiting the tournament here, one ‘U’ will advance: BYU. Again, Dybantsa is that much of a difference maker, and I did say either Round One or Elite Eight exit for the Cougars. #1 Duke will beat #4 Kansas, #3 Michigan State will knock off #7 UCLA. From there, #1 Florida will end #5 Vanderbilt’s run while #3 Illinois ends #2 Houston’s season. #1 Arizona takes down #4 Arkansas, led by John Calipari’s coaching and Darius Acuff’s 22.9 ppg. #6 BYU wins a ‘ 67 meme-battle’ with #7 Miami. Finally, #1 Michigan defeats #4 Alabama and #3 Virginia defeats #2 Iowa State, officially taking care of the final two-seed.

Elite Eight: Chalk Minus One

Unlike last season, we will not see all four one-seeds in the Final Four. In this exercise, Duke, Arizona, and Michigan make it. However, this is where I say, ‘Bon Voyage’ to the defending champions, Florida. In an era of NIL dominating college athletics, a team that began its upward swing before Moneyball became expected gets rewarded. The Fighting Illini finally take their jump and make it to the Final Four.

Final Four: The Ghost of 2023

It doesn’t take a bracketologist to say that Duke will make it back to the National Championship. Cameron Boozer will continue his excellent 22.5 ppg and 10.2 rpg season as the Blue Devils cruise past Illinois. However, the story here is Dusty May’s redemption. While memories of San Diego State’s buzzer-beater as time expired to end FAU’s magical run in 2023 play through his mind, the Wolverines take control and defeat Big 12 champions Arizona. Chris Webber’s ghost will not cost Michigan here.

National Championship: MK to JS: A Legacy of Winning

For the first time since 2015, the Duke Blue Devils will be national champions. Jon Scheyer will win his first national title, finally picking up Mike Krzyzewski’s legacy and adding a new chapter. The Boozers will prove to be too much as another exciting college basketball season comes to an end on April 6th.